The UK Food Security Scorecard – by Professor Christopher Elliott
When was the last time Britain fully self-sufficient in food production? This was actually over 200 years ago, around the turn of the 18th century. You could say these were the ‘good old days’ but actually it was far from that. Most working-class families struggled to afford a diet beyond bread, potatoes, and a bit of fat. Meat, dairy, and vegetables were seen as luxuries for the upper class. Child malnutrition was rampant across the land. Prior to World War 1 about half of all food consumed was imported and this proved disastrous as food shortages became worse and worse as the war progressed. In true British style, lessons went unlearned prior to the Second World War where rationing, shortages and government advice for all to destroy their pets to save food was the order of the day.
So where are we now in terms of food security? The UK imports roughly about 40% by volume and 50% by value of all we eat. Some, and unfortunately those in charge of the nation for several decades, believe this is all fine and dandy and there’s nothing to be worried about. However even Defra, the department that I state has striven to make the D stand for Dysfunctional is starting to signal that “All is not well in the kingdom.” In a recent report they flag up (in a very reserved way) that there may be trouble ahead…..
So where exactly is the trouble coming from? For most of us, except for the most narcissistic and dishonest among us (Messrs Trump and Farage come to mind..) we are already in a climate crisis which will only get steadily worse. Estimates range from 10 – 25% reduction in global food production, while population increase is estimated to be 20%. It doesn’t take a mathematical genius to work out globally we will have severe food shortages. The thought by some in Britain is that, don’t worry we can import our way out of trouble really does not stand up to any degree of scrutiny.
Then there’s the massive geopolitics of global food security. We have more global conflicts currently than any time since World War 2 hugely affected food production and supply. The impacts of the Ukraine war have had a devastating impact on food supplies, particularly in Africa. Additionally, both Russia and China view food security as hugely powerful bargaining chips and the aforementioned Trump with his tariffs could play another pivotal role in where food goes and how much it will cost.
With all that is going on currently in terms of national security, militarily and energy-wise would you not think that food security would get a look in? Unfortunately not. The Labour Party inherited a mess from its predecessors and has done a spectacular job of only making it worse. The Inheritance Tax reforms on agricultural property and suspension of the Sustainable Farming Incentive Scheme are two own goals that would shame an Accrington Stanley defender.
To get back to the halcyon days of food self-sufficiency is beyond a reality. Unless climate change means we can grow bananas in Bangor, rice in Rotherham or farm tuna in Torbay we will have to import many vital food commodities. But there are so many staples that could be grown or reared in the UK if only there was just a government policy to support such endeavours. This would not only require a major investment strategy to be produced but also a complete change in mindset in those in power.
We all like to look at league tables (especially a Leeds United supporter as I am…). Is being bottom of the league for the USA, Canada, China, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, and the UK a good place to be in terms of food self-sufficiency? I think not.
Professor Christopher Elliott
for Coriolis Consulting Ltd
May 2025
